Could Hurricane Dorian or a rash of banded tussock moth caterpillars impact this year’s foliage? Learn our latest predictions in our fall forecast update.
Peak Fall Foliage In Northern New England Is Just a Few Weeks Away
Photo Credit : Jim Salge
While autumn doesn’t officially arrive for another week, in much of New England the air already has a distinct feeling of fall. Fog has been filling the valleys, and cool mist dances over the lakes at dawn. Goldenrod and asters, the last flowers of a fading summer, line the roadsides. Farmers’ markets offer the abundance of harvest season, apples are ripening quickly on the tree, and pumpkin spice is everywhere. And it’s getting dark so early!
Cool mornings in autumn fill New England’s valleys with fog.
Previewing the amazing show just weeks away, forests already have pockets of colorful foliage to catch the eye. Maples in wetlands are turning red, birches atop ledges are turning yellow, and hobblebush, full of bright red berries, is turning its unique mottled red and purple.
About a month ago, we put out our official fall foliage outlook for New England. Our predictions were based on a wet, late spring; a canopy of leaves that was healthy but a bit thin, owing to the energy that trees put into making an abundant crop of seeds and nuts; and a likely warm start to autumn. Overall, we felt that conditions were right for a season that was bright, if a bit late, and offered longer-lasting fall colors.
Peak fall foliage in northern New England is just a few weeks away. Photo Credit : Jim Salge
Regardless of how healthy the forests are, the weather leading into autumn can make or break the season. We need warm, sunny days and cool, crisp nights to both kick-start the colors and make them pop. Too much rain, wind, or cloudiness will mute the colors and limit the season. And since there are always unresolved weather questions in our initial August forecasts, we wanted to update our outlook now, just a few weeks from peak.
2019 New England Fall Foliage Risk Factors
In the past few weeks we have avoided some significant risk factors. For instance, if rainfall and humidity had remained high as temperatures began to cool, we could have been looking at a pretty significant outbreak of anthracnose — a leaf-browning fungus that began to flourish in some areas after our wet spring — holding back the best colors.
Late-summer rainfall was sporadic and uneven across New England. Photo Credit : Northeast Regional Climate Center
However, outside of Downeast Maine and a few other places, rainfall in New England has been limited (the drought monitor even shows some areas of abnormal dryness). Drier falls tend to have more intense colors; the tradeoff is that leaves can move through peak more quickly. We will be monitoring this unexpected development as we move into autumn.
Some abnormal dryness is now seen across parts of western New England.
Another risk factor was the neutral El Niño/La Niña state, which put New England at a higher-than-normal risk for coastal tropical storm activity. But while Hurricane Dorian did make a close pass in early September, its wind and rain significantly affected only Massachusetts’s Cape and Islands and far Downeast Maine. And stronger cold fronts later in the season will likely steer storms further away.
A final risk factor was the impact of various insects and caterpillars on tree health. Luckily, there have been few big outbreaks this fall, though numbers remain high for tent caterpillars as well as banded tussock moth caterpillars (which have garnered quite a bit of interest for their abundance and unusual look). Given how late these insects emerge in the season, they rarely do serious damage to the trees — but this year they did chew up a slightly bigger percentage of leaves, especially on young oaks.
Banded tussock moth caterpillars are abundant as autumn approaches. Photo Credit : Jim Salge
2019 New England Fall Foliage Update
Looking ahead, the outlooks for the next couple of weeks continue to call for above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall. This can be a good combination for fall foliage if humidity remains low and temperatures fall off significantly at night. We are still calling for a later-than-average foliage show, but a few cool nights in the next week or so might move the timing closer to normal, especially in the far north.
Temperatures are forecasted to be above normal through the end of September when peak begins. Photo Credit : NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Lastly, if conditions do remain sunny and dry, we could be in for a bolder show than originally expected. The red pigments form only when sunlight is abundant, and drier weather will concentrate the sugars in the leaves — all of which could be good news for leaf peepers.
So overall, what do we think?
We’re optimistic — even more so than in our earlier forecast! And we won’t have long to wait to see how it all turns out.
At NewEngland.com, we offer many tools to help you plan a visit to our region and to keep up with the pace of the changing leaves. We have a peak foliage prediction map, a map of live foliage updates, a foliage app, and frequent reportstracking the season in real time.
We can’t wait to share another New England fall foliage season with you!
As a former meteorologist at the Mount Washington Observatory, foliage reporter Jim Salge is a keen observer of the progression of the seasons in New England. He uses his knowledge of weather, geography and climate to pinpoint the best time to visit various New England locations to find the best light, atmosphere, and most importantly, color.
