New England Fall Foliage | 2022 Forecast

We just passed the peak of the annual Perseid meteor shower, and here in New England, the weather cooperated for some fantastic late-summer stargazing. It had been hot and humid for weeks, but cooler, drier air arrived just in time to clear the skies for the streaking space rocks. By the following morning, many lakes around the region were covered in a cool mist — another sign of the approaching change in seasons. Our recent swings in temperature underscore the dramatic differences between this summer and last. When we published the 2021 fall foliage forecast, New England was coming off its wettest summer month on record; this year, however, drought dominates the headlines. 

Just as weather patterns change from year to year, so does the fall foliage. While there’s always a beautiful color show in New England, it may come early one year, and very late the next. Sometimes it’s dominated by orange and yellow, sometimes it’s overwhelmingly red; the palate can be muted, or super-bright. How it plays out is a complex phenomenon, with many factors at work (and often in opposition to each other). Overall, though, we know that New England’s weather can be counted on to bring about beautiful fall colors.  So, what will this year look like? 

New England Fall Foliage 2022 | Influences

Weather & Climate

The first key ingredient in the development of the fall foliage season is how weather has affected forest health. Drought is being reported across New England, but what matters here is where the drought is and how it developed.  Snowpack was slow to build last winter, and over the course of the season it never really established itself outside northern New England. Deep snow was restricted to the Crown of Maine, the White Mountains, and northern Vermont, and when the calendar flipped to spring, snow remained only in those places. Without significant snowmelt, soils in southern New England dried quickly in the spring.

 Compounding the situation, rainfall was scarce in southern New England throughout the spring months. Then there was a significant heat wave across the region in mid-May, just as the trees were putting out their leaves. That really left the plants parched, especially in more southerly areas. And while subsequent rainfall across northern New England has stabilized the stress there, southern areas continue to decline.  Drought has reached extreme levels in parts of Rhode Island and in eastern Massachusetts (Boston, for example, has had only 4.5 inches of rainfall since the start of May; there’s been less than an inch recorded since July began). In these areas, trees are showing significant signs of stress, including some early turning and browning leaves.

By contrast, in northern New England the drought level is listed as only “abnormally dry,” and the forests are showing better overall health. Since the start of May, there’s been nearly 10 inches of rain in Concord, New Hampshire, and more than 13 inches in Burlington, Vermont. Given this, we expect less drought-related impact on fall foliage the farther north and the farther inland you go. 

Wildlife

Bugs and Fungi

The insect formerly known as the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) got a new common name this year — the spongy moth — and it seems that the whole species came out to celebrate. For the second year in a row, these caterpillars caused significant defoliation in mixed oak forests in the foothills of many New England mountain ranges. The lack of rainfall this spring was a major factor, as the fungus that serves as a biological control for this invasive insect doesn’t set up as well in drier years.

Some observers are saying the spongy moth outbreak is the worst they’ve seen in a long time, but the numbers show that this year’s damage is actually a little less substantial than last year’s — though it’s hard to argue with anyone whose neighborhood has lost all its greenery. The hardest-hit areas seem to be in the eastern White Mountains in New Hampshire and Maine, the Champlain Valley in Vermont, and the southern Berkshires in Massachusetts, as well as around the Quabbin Reservoir. Here, as trees struggle to put out a second growth of leaves in the midst of a drought, large swaths of the forest canopy look like early May: small leaves and thin cover.  Oaks are facing another insect threat, as the beetle known as a twig pruner is out in large numbers this year as well. This species is native and typically doesn’t hurt the tree, but it does kill the tips of otherwise healthy branches, leading to unsightly spots of dead leaves against the otherwise green canopy. It’s something that, if you look for it, you’ll definitely notice in the lead-up to foliage season. 

And we’re always on the lookout for leaf fungus, such as anthracnose, that can mute the fall display. But this year, a rapid leaf-out in May’s sudden heat followed by scant rain has largely eliminated this threat, except in parts of Vermont and in northern Maine. Even there, leaf fungus is expected to have only a small effect, unless it really turns rainy in September. 

Flowers and Seeds

Trees spend such a significant portion of their energy putting out flowers and seeds (aka mast) that they don’t produce heavy crops every year. But when they do, it can lessen the foliage display — and since the phenomenon happens with surprising synchronicity across species, the forest canopy can be impacted region-wide. This is the second year in a row in which none of the primary foliage trees have produced heavy seed crops. White oaks seem to be carrying the heaviest load of acorns, whereas the other oaks, maples, and hickory are generally having normal to light years. Overall, mast is expected to have a minimal impact on foliage this year.

New England Fall Foliage 2022 | Long-Range Outlook

Even with a good setup in New England this year, the best fall color will happen only if the autumn weather cooperates. Bright hues are brought out by warm, sunny days and cool, crisp nights — a combination that not only accelerates the demise of green chlorophyll, but also kick-starts the formation of red color pigments (which are produced only in autumn, as a sort of sunscreen for leaves).

For the third year in a row, La Niña will be the dominant factor in New England’s fall weather. In this weather pattern, a cold pool of water in the Pacific Ocean delivers a more active northern jet stream to the Northeast; this can bring changeable weather to New England, trending generally warm and wet. While that would tend to push foliage later across most of the region, it could also provide opportunities for strong cold fronts to clear things out, especially in the far north of New England. Patterns are rarely stagnant in La Niña years. 

One thing to watch is the increase in tropical activity that often accompanies La Niña. We saw this last year with Hurricane Henri in Rhode Island, and the forecasts are calling for above-normal activity again this year. Given that the most likely areas of impact are also those with the most significant drought, we’ll be keeping a close eye on this before issuing our September update.

New England Fall Foliage 2022 | The Official Forecast

We see a forest that is healthy in the far north but increasingly stressed by heat and drought in the south and near the coast. We see a significant impact by spongy moths in lower and middle elevations, and especially in mixed oak forests, but less so in the higher areas. We see a long-range outlook that trends toward warm and wet but with a chance of early cool snaps along the Canadian border.  Given all that, we feel that the foliage will be on time across far northern New England, but it will trend later than normal the farther south you go. The wave of peak color will start in late September as usual; after that, its southerly progression may slow or stall, leading to foliage color lingering into November in  southern New England. 

Where the drought has had less impact — especially in the White Mountains, the Green Mountains, and the mountains of western Maine — we should see typical foliage conditions, which is to say the colors should be spectacular. Outside those areas, drought becomes the dominant factor: With warm, sunny days, it can bring about a brief, bright punch of color (reds can be especially bright in drought years), but if it stays too warm and too dry for too long, we’ll see browning and early leaf drop. Some tropical rainfall could be very welcome this fall, as long as it doesn’t come with hurricane winds. 

Yet we think the biggest factor that may affect leaf peeping in New England this fall isn’t the drought, or the spongy moth, but the “backyard effect.” In the ski industry, this describes what happens when there’s no snow in the cities and urban centers, and people forget how great the skiing could be in the mountains. Given the drought-stressed trees and browning lawns in New England’s population centers, we’re worried that people may not be willing to travel to see what should be a great show this year.  Therefore, our advice: Don’t cancel your foliage travel plans, be willing to explore, and hope for rain! 

2022 Fall Foliage Planning | What’s Next?

Hoping to make the most of foliage season this year? We’re here to help you plan your visit and keep up with the changing colors. Check out our peak foliage map, plan a perfect fall road trip, and stay tuned for weekly “where to see peak foliage now” posts starting next month. Things to look for in our September update:

• Will the drought continue, worsen, or let up?
• Will the tropics become more active in steering storms over New England?
• Will we see an early frost in the far north to kick-start the colors there?

We’ll let you know — and we can’t wait to share the season with you!

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Beyond New England | National Foliage Predictions

Mid-Atlantic and New York

While New England is seeing significant drought, New York state and the Mid-Atlantic region have experienced normal (or at least timely) rainfall, and a strong foliage season is anticipated. This is especially true for the Adirondacks, which have the greatest chance of early cold snaps brought on by La Niña, but a bright show is also expected for the Catskills, as well as the highlands of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  

Southeast

Drought has not been a concern in the southern Appalachians, where autumn colors come later. From Virginia to Georgia, temperatures have been above normal in the higher elevations from late spring through summer, and they are expected to stay that way into fall. Expect a bright show, with peak colors perhaps a bit later than the historical average. 

Upper Midwest

The Great Lakes region has little drought, and the spring and summer setup has been good for forest health. Foliage should be bright and on time this season, and possibly a little early across the northern tier if an active jet stream ushers a cold snap. A visit to Michigan’s Upper Peninsula or northern Minnesota is our pick for the region this year.

Mountain West

Much of the Mountain West is hot and dry, which should make the foliage display early and brief. Colorado has areas with less drought, however, and once again it is our pick for the region. Go in September to see the golden aspens draped over the mountainsides.

Pacific Northwest

After the extreme heat wave of 2021, the Pacific Northwest’s weather returned to something more like normal this year. It should be a great season for the larches, a deciduous conifer tree common in the eastern Cascade Mountains, just west of the high deserts; look for larch colors in early October. 

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