New England Peak Fall Foliage Outlook Updated

Labor Day weekend marks the symbolic ending of the summer season in New England. Officially, autumn won’t arrive until September 23rd this year, but the line of boats and RV’s traveling south out of the lakes and mountains of northern New England on Monday indicates the true transition in mindset has already begun. With summer’s sunset, the subtle signs of autumn’s initial onset around the region have kicked in right on cue.  A couple of relatively cool mornings this past weekend brought out some isolated patches of very bright foliage color. Ledges and rock outcroppings, with their shallow soils in dry conditions, seem to be  leading the way this year in donning their autumn coats. You are most likely to find these early scenes on the sides and summits of mountains, but even along highways above blasted rock, colors have already caught the eye in every New England state!

While we await more widespread scenes to emerge over the coming weeks now, we look to celebrations of the harvest to hold our fall focus.  Apple picking will be a very popular activity among families for the final few weeks before leaf peeping, and by all accounts, it’s set to be a banner year. We’ve even heard reports of orchards having to cull some trees midsummer to prevent the heavy loads from breaking branches.  The reason for this great year can be traced back to spring. It was a beautiful year for apple blossoms, which enjoyed a very dry few weeks for pollination. Afterwards, a very wet period in early summer gave the growing apples an ample jumpstart. These conditions will also have an effect on our fall foliage season, which we highlighted in our initial outlook a few weeks back.  

Since then, we’ve been watching the weather to discern the details of the coming colors. An ideal September setup would mean warm days, cool nights, abundant sunshine and occasional but necessary rainfall. The reason that these conditions bring out the best colors is that while the yellow and orange pigments are in the leaves all year, only in the weeks leading up to peak do the red pigments get produced; and only if the conditions are right.  We’ve had no shortage of sunshine in the past week, and though a series of fronts look to push through the region over the next seven days, the long-range autumn outlook signals below normal precipitation, and hopefully sunshine.  

Temperatures have been the big story though, as they have been well above normal, and look to continue to be so. Overnight lows, though, will be cooler over the forecast period, as the humidity drops behind the fronts. It won’t take many cool nights to continue the color progression in the far north and in the mountains. In the highest terrain, and in areas along the Canadian border, high and peak color could be as little as two weeks away!  

Further south, the temperatures and weather this week will have less overall effect on the season’s colors, as peak won’t emerge until October.  If dry weather continues though, you’ll see more and more isolated, stressed trees showing early color as well. Putting all this new information together, we can refine our first August outlook for peak autumn color this coming season. With the generally dry conditions, the season still looks to emerge a bit earlier than average peak times, as long as we get some requisite cool nights. The best news is that dry weather also tends to concentrate the sugars the leaves, and with ample sunshine this autumn, the production of red pigments in the leaves could be primed.  

We also think that due to late summer weather patterns, this will be the type of year where variations in terrain, aspect and soils will have a greater effect than normal on the timing of our fall foliage, and thus a willingness to explore within the region will inevitably bring you to the brightest foliage as it arrives!We will continue to provide updates here on our blog, and now we will also begin to look to you for updates as well, through a variety of social media sources, including: Our Foliage Facebook PageFoliage AppRealTime Foliage MapsAlso, you can use the hashtags #NEFoliage or #Foliagereports on Twitter and Instagram. Exciting changes are in the air – we hope you get out and enjoy them!