New England Fall Foliage Stalls in Hot Weather

There is a point in my morning commute where it’s easy to get off the highway and take a scenic route along the shoreline of Lake Massabesic. I seem to find time to follow this route a lot more often in autumn, compelled to feel a connection to the land and landscape around me as it changes by the day. All it takes is an extra couple of miles and minutes, but a conscious effort to slow down can completely change my mindset in the morning.   For the first day of autumn this year, I planned to leave extra early and watch the first sunrise of the season, and I am so glad that I did. There was finally a noticeable chill in the air, and the morning mist was dancing high above the lake before dawn. A pair of loons swam close to shore as the sun broke over the ridge, and the whole scene lit up like a thousand fireworks. And best of all, boosted by the saturation of the morning sunlight, some early fall foliage was discernible on the illuminated shoreline.

These types of mornings are both welcome after the recent heat, and necessary to kickstart the autumn colors. Just how warm has it been? On Sunday morning, Berlin, New Hampshire’s low temperature fell below the normal daily low for the first time time in thirty six days, well over a month! During that stretch, the first fifteen days of September were especially warm, with Burlington, Vermont, averaging more than eight degrees above normal, ranking second all-time during that period. It has also continued to be very dry, with Bangor, Maine, recording under an inch-and-a-half of rain so far this month. What does this mean for the fall foliage right now? While drought and abundant sunshine have primed the pump for the colors to pop early this year, Mother Nature has yet to flip the switch to get it going. Our original forecast for a generally early peak could still hold for much of New England, as long as the requisite cool mornings continue going forward, but in the north country, early would mean NOW. And even with the cold front sweeping through this past Sunday, we’re looking to be a few days to almost a week behind last year in these areas in the far north.A series of images taken by Chris Whiton and Philip Forsyth in the Zealand Valley of Northern New Hampshire highlight that difference.  The two top images below were taken September 22nd this year and September 16th last year, respectively. These two seem to show approximately the same stage of early color, though this year is about a week later. For a third data point, we included the same pond in 2012 on the same date as the first image, showing how far along the color could be if it weren’t for the persistent heat.  

For foliage fans, there is good news though, as after the cold front last Sunday, temperatures cooled down and the forecast continues to look seasonable through the next week or so. At this point, it shouldn’t take many more cool mornings for moderate to high color, like the third image, to emerge in our most northern zones. I would expect areas like the Great North Woods of New Hampshire, the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont and the Crown of Maine all to have appreciable amounts of foliage this weekend, peaking over the next week to ten days or so.   Outside of these Northern Zones, isolated splashes of color are emerging, especially in young trees and those in poor soils along roadsides and on ledges. These specifically stressed trees have shallow roots or are in shallow soils, making them more susceptible to the recent dry heat, and they are responding by changing early. Dry weather can concentrate the sugars and briefly cause vibrant colors, but can also move the leaves through the cycle to brown or fall quickly. This early color is not widespread, nor do we think it’s conditions are necessarily indicative of those in the forest as a whole, where trees are more surely rooted. Seemingly, to this point, 99% or more of the overall forest in New England is still green, or is just starting to turn. We remain generally hopeful that after the warm weather delay in the north, that the color will emerge on schedule or even slightly early through the remainder of the region, though it remains likely that this will be the type of year where variations in terrain, aspect and soils will have a greater effect than normal on our fall foliage. A willingness to explore within the region will inevitably bring you to the brightest foliage as it arrives throughout October!

It won’t be long now until we will be able to see how things are truly shaping up. Until then, we will continue to hope for warm days, a little rain, and some perfect, cool autumn mornings until the foliage emerges.  To follow the progress as the fall color emerges in New England, be sure to follow along at the links below throughout the week:Our Foliage Facebook PageFoliage AppRealTime Foliage MapsAlso, you can use the hashtags #NEFoliage or #Foliagereports on Twitter and Instagram. We’ll hopefully have lots to report next week!  Happy Exploring!