2014 New England Fall Foliage Outlook

On a recent August morning, I found myself requiring a sweatshirt while hiking along the shores of a quiet New Hampshire pond at sunrise. In the unseasonably cool air, the morning mist that danced above the water was slow to burn off as the sun rose higher in the sky. When the view across the pond finally cleared though, I was most surprised to see striking swamp maples already beginning to don their autumn coats in the far corner of the pond. It just seemed a bit early for the fall foliage season to be making its appearance in New England.

The arrival of autumn is much anticipated in New England, not just for the beautiful foliage for which the region is widely know, but also the great events and activities throughout the region set amidst the colorful backdrop. It’s not at all unusual for signs of the advancing autumn to begin to appear as early as late August, stirring sentiments of past autumn outings. This year though, with a string of cool mornings and persistent low humidity, these changes seem so much more noticeable. Over the coming weeks, more and more early color will begin to creep into the New England landscape, ahead of the big show in late September and October. The progression of foliage generally follows the same relative pattern every year, but that doesn’t make forecasting the fall color an easy task. The autumn color will typically evolve in any given location over the course of a few weeks, but every season is different, and any give year could tend early or late, vibrant or muted, and range from predominantly yellow to overwhelmingly red.

The factors that lead to these differences aren’t precisely understood, but in general, we know that the best years are made possible by a mild and reasonably wet spring after leaf out, a moderate summer with adequate, but not excessive rainfall, and most importantly, a dominance of warm days and cool nights in the fall, with only occasional rainfall. To understand how this season may play out, we have to look back at the weather events that shaped our 2014 New England fall foliage outlook. This past winter, the media was abuzz with talk of the polar vortex, and persistent arctic outbreaks gripping the country. When we look back at our data though, much of the extreme cold that dropped out of Canada and chilled the Midwestern states moderated significantly by the time it got to New England. The winter temperatures did end up below normal, but the heart of winter didn’t rewrite the history books here, nor did it bring temperatures cold enough to harm the buds on the trees. What winter in New England was though, was long. Vermont had it’s coldest March in 120 years of record keeping, and all of the snow that accumulated in Northern New England over the course of the winter was in no hurry to melt. The first day of spring I was cross country skiing on four to five feet of snow in the Southern White Mountains, and many of the northern lakes didn’t shed their ice late April or early May. The prolonged snow pack and cold temperatures led to significant delays in many phenological markers across the region. Leaf out was consistently two to four weeks later than normal, with the greatest delays in southern New England. Spring flowers were also significantly delayed, with May species blooming in June, and delays noted into July. For our fall foliage forecast though, the late leaf will serve us well, saving the leaves from likely damage from prolonged periods of frosts, as well as a damp period that may have allowed leaf fungi to establish. The canopy looked great coming out of spring, and ample rainfall through the summer hasn’t even allowed the grass to brown, let alone stress the trees.

Too much rainfall in fact may be the only concern for foliage, in what has otherwise been an ideal setup going into autumn. Excessive rainfall in the summer can lead to a more muted autumn, and July ranked in the top ten wettest months region-wide. This rainfall was mainly from only two events, including the remnants of Hurricane Arthur, with significant dry weather in between. So there’s reason to be hopeful that the effects of the rain will be mitigated. Overall, the trees seem to be in great shape for a colorful show this fall, but so much of the timing and intensity of the fall foliage is dependent on the weather in September. We’ve now had three consecutive seasons of cooler than normal weather, and the long range models are calling for that trend to continue. The forecast map below shows the same pattern that we’ve become quite familiar with this year; cold air in the central states spilling eastward towards New England right through October. Given the seasonal setup so far, and the prospect for the cool weather continuing into the fall, our 2014 New England fall foliage outlook is calling for what could be a great show of autumn color. The data is hinting at the colors arriving a bit ahead of their traditional peak times this year, and with none of the stresses that usually lead to an early leaf drop, the peak colors should be prolonged and vibrant. Much of this is contingent on warm sunny days and cool clear nights in the weeks ahead to jump start the process, but the odds makers should like this forecast. Throughout the autumn, we will be updating the outlook every Wednesday in this blog, while also providing insights and tips to enhance your leaf peeping experiences throughout New England. We have many tools at YankeeFoliage.com including a map of traditional times of peak foliage, recommended driving routes, and a live interactive foliage map. We also have a New England foliage app, Leaf Peepr, where you can submit reports and pictures, and see other recent reports. We also will be posting updates to our Foliage Facebook page, and using hashtag #NEFoliage on Twitter. With great fall weather and early signs of autumn already emerging in New England, we’re ramping up for what should be a great season. One month from today, the season officially begins! We can’t wait!